Galaxy Digital has slashed the estimated probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to just 10%, citing unresolved political disputes and a tight legislative calendar. The Senate faces only a two-to-three-week window after returning from recess on September 14 to advance the bill. Key sticking points include stablecoin yield rules and ethical guidelines for government officials involved in crypto. The firm previously estimated a 75% passage chance in May, a figure that has steadily declined amid opposition from Democrats and banking industry representatives.
The CLARITY Act now carries only a 10% chance of becoming law in 2026, according to Galaxy Digital . Legislators face unresolved political differences and a packed Senate calendar.
The Senate will have only two to three weeks for debate after Congress returns from recess on September 14. A delay in initiating the process could make passage impossible.
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, said Congress must act quickly. He warned that without a motion-to-proceed vote upon the Senate’s return, the bill could consume nearly all available floor time.
Key issues remain unresolved, including ethical guidelines for government officials and their participation in the crypto industry. The stablecoin yield provision is a major area of controversy, with banks opposing rules that would allow crypto companies to offer yields without following bank-like regulations.
Galaxy Digital has steadily reduced its odds for the bill. The firm estimated a 75% chance on May 22, revised it down to 60% on June 6, and further reduced it to 50% on June 26. The current 10% estimate represents a sharp decline.
The CLARITY Act aims to create a more defined legal regime for digital assets in the U.S. Proponents argue it would bring clarity for crypto firms and regulators.
The bill was approved by the Senate Banking Committee in May. It has since faced criticism from Democrats and banking industry representatives, particularly over stablecoin provisions and the potential for crypto firms to gain a competitive edge.
The crypto sector continues to advocate for the legislation. In early June, over 200 crypto firms and groups asked the Senate to pass the act in a letter shared by advocacy organization Stand With Crypto.
With the Senate reconvening on September 14, only a narrow window remains to resolve differences. The latest Galaxy Digital prediction indicates bleak prospects for the CLARITY Act in 2026.
