A leading crypto ETP analyst explains the 2026 divergence between Bitcoin and gold as a function of distinct buyer bases. According to Stephen Coltman of 21Shares, gold’s rally has been driven by central banks for geopolitical strategy, while Bitcoin serves individuals as a financial lifeline during crises. The inverse correlation suggests a portfolio role for both assets, even as analysts debate which will dominate as a store of value.
The divergence between gold and Bitcoin in 2026 stems from two distinct segments of buyers, Stephen Coltman, head of macro at crypto exchange-traded product provider 21Shares, stated. Gold’s rally over the last three years was primarily fueled by central bank buying, while Bitcoin is more widely held by individuals than financial institutions.
Coltman explained that physical gold has a greater geopolitical strategic role currently. “Physical gold has a greater geopolitical strategic role currently, as the asset of choice for state actors who want to store wealth in a way that is protected from rival powers,” he said. This has meant it trades with greater sensitivity to deteriorating international relations.
However, BTC has more utility for individuals who may use it as an alternative lifeline when local banking infrastructure fails. Coltman pointed to exchanges in Dubai and Abu Dhabi being shut down after missile and drone strikes from Iran as a stark reminder of 24/7 access’s value. The inverse correlation between BTC and gold means investors should hold both to benefit from each asset’s unique properties, he told Cointelegraph.
Ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks drove gold to an all-time high of nearly $5,600 per ounce in January 2026. Heightened volatility later dragged the precious metal back down to about $4,497 per ounce, renewing debate about gold’s role as a store of value.
Financial analysts are split on gold versus BTC dominance. Bitcoin is likely to outperform gold over the next three years, according to macroeconomist Lyn Alden, who said the pendulum usually swings between the two. However, former hedge fund manager Ray Dalio expects BTC will never replace gold as a store-of-value asset because it still trades like a risk-on asset correlated to technology stocks.
