JP Morgan reaffirmed its $6,300 per ounce year-end gold target for 2026 on February 25, while raising its near-term forecast to $4,500. The bank cited sustained central bank purchasing and investor diversification as key drivers. Spot gold has surged 64% through 2025 and gained another 20% in 2026 so far, with analysts from other major institutions issuing similar bullish projections.
JP Morgan reiterated its long-term gold price target of $6,300 per ounce for year-end 2026, according to a research note published on February 25. On the same day, the bank also raised its short-term forecast by 15% to $4,500 an ounce.
The decision was driven by central bank gold buying, announcements of U.S. Treasury divestment, and a broader shift in reserve preferences away from the dollar. Gold’s price action this year already reflects these forces, with spot prices climbing approximately 20% in 2026 following a 64% surge through 2025.
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at J.P. Morgan, stated: “While this rally in gold has not, and will not, be linear, we believe the trends driving this rebasing higher in gold prices are not exhausted.” She added that the diversification trend among official reserves and investors still has further to run.
The bank projects central bank purchases will total around 755 tonnes in 2026, remaining well above pre-2022 averages. Globally, central bank gold holdings now account for nearly 20% of official reserves, up from around 15% at the end of 2023.
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan, echoed this view, stating: “We believe central bank demand will remain elevated next year and have been encouraged by strong buying in the third quarter of 2025, even with much higher gold prices.”
Gold portfolio allocation across various instruments stood at about 2.8% of total investor assets under management in late 2025. JP Morgan sees this share potentially rising toward 4–5% in the coming years, which would provide significant additional demand.
The broader analyst consensus aligns closely with JP Morgan‘s outlook. Wells Fargo targets $6,100–$6,300, UBS sees $6,200, while Deutsche Bank and Société Générale both forecast $6,000 by year-end.
