Prediction market notional volume surged to $113.8 billion in Q2 2026, up 48.7% from the prior quarter, according to CoinGecko. June set a monthly record of $50.7 billion, driven by major sporting events. Kalshi expanded its market share to 58.9%, while Polymarket declined to 30.2%. New entrants include Rothera, a Robinhood and Susquehanna joint venture, which reached $2.1 billion in June. Cboe Global Markets launched Cboe Predicts, a platform offering binary options on the Mini-S&P 500 Index. Meta is developing a prediction markets app called Arena, initially using points before potentially expanding to real-money betting.
Prediction market notional volume climbed sharply in the second quarter of 2026, reaching $113.8 billion — a 48.7% increase from the previous quarter. June notional volume surged to a record $50.7 billion, a 92% jump from the average monthly volume of $27.5 billion posted over the prior five months.
CoinGecko attributed the spike to a packed calendar of major sporting events beginning in late May, including the UEFA Champions League Final, Stanley Cup, NBA Finals, FIFA World Cup, and Wimbledon. Sports-driven activity was particularly evident on Polymarket, where sports-related contracts accounted for 81% of trading volume in June, compared to 40% in January.
Despite increased sports trading, Polymarket’s market share declined quarter-over-quarter from 35.8% to 30.2%. Meanwhile, Kalshi expanded its lead after increasing its share from 42.4% in the first quarter to nearly 58.9% in the second.
Rothera, a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group launched in May, quickly climbed to fourth place in June with $2.1 billion in notional volume. Last month, Cboe Global Markets launched Cboe Predicts, a prediction markets platform featuring securities-based binary option contracts tied to the Mini-S&P 500 Index.
The contracts, trading under the symbols XSPBW and XSPBX, are already available through Interactive Brokers, while Charles Schwab is expected to add access in the coming months. Cboe also said more brokerage firms are likely to support the products over time, allowing traders to take a “yes” or “no” position on whether the Mini-S&P 500 Index will settle at or above a specified level at expiration.
The New York Times reported that Meta is developing a standalone prediction markets app called Arena, where users would predict real-world outcomes using points instead of real money. The experimental project is a top priority for CEO Mark Zuckerberg and could eventually expand to real-money betting, following Meta’s earlier Forecast app launched in 2020 and discontinued in 2022.
