Nvidia’s market share for AI chips in China has plummeted from 95% to zero, according to CEO Jensen Huang. The collapse follows tightened U.S. export restrictions that blocked even specially designed chips, costing the company a $50 billion opportunity. Despite this, Wall Street analysts maintain a strong buy rating for NVDA, with an average price target of $269.82.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang confirmed the company has completely lost its AI chip market share in China. Speaking at an event, he stated, “At the moment, we are 100% out of China. We went from 95% market share to 0%.”
The decline accelerated in April 2025 when U.S. export controls were extended to cover even its H20 chips designed for the Chinese market. This move forced Nvidia to take a $4.5 billion charge tied to excess inventory it could no longer sell.
Huang criticized the policy’s impact, telling another forum that conceding the entire Chinese market “probably does not make a lot of strategic sense.” He argued the policy has “already largely backfired” by causing America to lose one of the world’s largest markets.
Despite the loss, analyst sentiment toward Nvidia stock remains overwhelmingly positive. Out of 70 analysts, 57 rate it a “strong buy” and 8 a “buy,” with only one “strong sell” rating.
The average one-year NVDA price target from 58 analysts is $269.82, representing a potential 35.96% upside from the current price. The most bullish estimate reaches $380, while the company’s revenue forecast for next quarter stands at $78.62 billion.
Chinese companies like Huawei, Cambricon, Moore Threads, and MetaX are now filling the market gap with domestic alternatives. Nvidia maintains an advantage through its CUDA software ecosystem, which local competitors have not replicated at scale.
