Prediction markets surpassed onchain gambling in volume for the first time in Q1 2026, reaching $36.6 billion compared to gambling’s $14 billion, according to blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs. The shift followed rapid expansion in both sectors, with annual volumes reaching $54 billion and $51 billion respectively in 2025. Notably, activity in both categories remained elevated despite a broader crypto market correction, indicating resilience driven by dedicated user bases.
Prediction markets overtook onchain gambling for the first time in the opening quarter of 2026. According to TRM Labs, prediction markets recorded $36.6 billion in volume compared with gambling’s $14 billion.
The shift followed a rapid expansion in both sectors throughout 2025. Onchain gambling reached $51 billion last year, while prediction markets climbed to $54 billion.
Onchain gambling volume remained near record levels despite the shift. It held at $14 billion in Q1 2026 after reaching an all-time high of $15 billion the previous quarter.
Neither sector retreated along with the broader crypto markets. Volumes remained elevated through the 2025-2026 market correction.
A TRM Labs spokesperson said gambling volumes surged during the recent pullback because of the “sticky and expanding activity of a loyal user base.” The firm stated this shows how consistent user activity can insulate an industry from a market pullback.
TRM Labs said gambling platforms and prediction markets face different financial crime risks. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have attracted scrutiny over insider trading, while gambling platforms such as Stake, WINk, and Rollbit are more exposed to money laundering.
The firm analyzed more than 2 million personal wallets that interacted with gambling platforms since January 2022. It divided users into groups including “Casual Bettors,” “Daily Grinders,” and “High Rollers.”
Volume remains heavily concentrated among high-value users, with High Rollers driving 91.8% of personal wallet gambling volume. However, the fastest-growing user categories are not only high-stakes bettors.
Casual Bettors’ monthly volume rose from $17 million in January 2022 to $188 million by March 2026. Daily Grinders’ volume increased twelvefold over the same period.
