Bitcoin traders are rebuilding upside expectations after last week’s sharp sell-off, according to prediction market data. Odds on Polymarket now show a 61% probability that Bitcoin reaches $75,000 in February. However, spot price action remains below key averages, and derivatives positioning continues to reflect trader caution rather than aggressive conviction.
Traders on Polymarket are now pricing a 61% chance Bitcoin hits $75,000 this month, up from recent lows. This reflects a reassessment of upside risk following a sell-off that briefly pushed the price into the high-$60,000 range.
Bitcoin’s spot price has stabilized near $70,000 after the decline. The broader trend remains fragile, however, with the asset still trading below key moving averages.
Derivatives data from Coinglass shows the long/short ratio has stayed tilted toward the short side. There has been no sustained surge in long positioning accompanying the modest spot price rebound.
The data points to a market that has absorbed a volatility shock but has not transitioned back to a risk-on phase. For now, Bitcoin is in a stabilization period, with sentiment improving faster than conviction in leveraged markets.
