Russia’s regulated cryptocurrency trading market could reach 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion rubles ($46.43 billion) in its first year after legalization, according to Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov. The forecast is deliberately conservative, as most existing crypto activity is expected to remain outside official exchanges initially. Finance Ministry data cited by Sberbank shows total annual crypto transactions in Russia at about 18 trillion rubles. SberCIB Investment Research estimates only about 20% of that volume will initially shift to regulated platforms. The new legal framework takes effect September 1, but professional market participants have until July 1, 2027, to obtain licenses, limiting first‑year maturity.
Russia’s regulated crypto trading volume could reach 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion rubles ($46.43 billion) during its first year after legalization, according to Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov. The estimate highlights the potential scale of Russia’s emerging regulated digital‑asset market, although most existing crypto activity is expected to remain outside official exchanges initially.
Popov told TASS ahead of the Eastern Economic Forum that the forecast is deliberately conservative. Finance Ministry data cited by Sberbank show cryptocurrency transactions in Russia were running at around 50 billion rubles per day, or approximately 18 trillion rubles annually.
SberCIB Investment Research estimates that only about 20% of this activity, equivalent to 3.5–4 trillion rubles, will initially move to regulated exchanges. Sberbank expects the regulated market to expand as Russia’s crypto infrastructure develops.
According to Popov, annual regulated trading volume could reach 4.75–5.25 trillion rubles by 2028 before climbing to approximately 7.5 trillion rubles ($87.06 billion) by 2029. A key reason for the cautious outlook is Russia’s licensing timetable.
Although the new legal framework takes effect on September 1, professional market participants have until July 1, 2027, to obtain the necessary licenses. Regulations on retail investment may also affect adoption.
Non‑qualified investors are permitted to invest no more than 300,000 rubles ($3,800) worth of crypto per year via one licensed intermediary, along with passing a test on risk awareness. Higher limits are available to qualified investors.
Availability of assets through official Russian exchanges could be another restriction. Only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether’s USDT have been approved for trading, with many other cryptocurrencies remaining unofficial.
The total volume of annual crypto activities in the country might be about 18 trillion rubles, yet only a small portion will initially reach regulated markets. Legalization may create a substantial business opportunity for banks, brokers, and exchanges while allowing better oversight of digital‑asset activity.
