SpaceX stock has experienced volatility since lockup expirations began in August 2026. The first lockup on Aug. 6 triggered a 35% bounce off lows as demand absorbed new supply. However, a second lockup on Aug. 20, combined with a Treasury bond announcement and new shares issued for the Cursor acquisition, pulled shares lower. Investors now eye a major lockup on Dec. 8 releasing all remaining restricted shares, which will test whether demand can outpace supply. Analysts remain bullish: Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas maintains an Overweight rating and $300 target, citing SpaceX’s unique positioning across launch, connectivity, and AI. The stock’s recovery hinges on that demand-supply balance.
The first lockup expiration on Aug. 6, 2026, saw SpaceX stock recover quickly with a 35% bounce off the lows. A second lockup on Aug. 20 then pulled shares back down again.
The fear that lockups would flood the market made sense on paper, but investors missed the demand side. University of Florida professor emeritus and IPO expert Jay Ritter stated that the stock price sometimes goes up when lockups expire.
Revenue for the quarter came in at $7.81 billion, ahead of the $6.93 billion Wall Street had expected, even as a net loss appeared due to heavy AI infrastructure spending. Several analysts held their price targets steady after the report.
On Aug. 20, the U.S. Treasury announced it would double its purchases of long-term bonds to at least $4 billion, rattling markets as yields climbed. SpaceX had also closed its purchase of the AI coding company Cursor on Aug. 14, issuing about 389.3 million new shares to help pay for the deal.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas kept his Overweight rating and $300 price target, describing SpaceX as uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI. Investors now look ahead to Dec. 8, when all remaining restricted shares other than Elon Musk’s become eligible for sale.
That December lockup is far bigger than the first two combined and will likely determine if the SpaceX stock forecast holds. Whether SpaceX stock is a buy right now comes down to how much weight investors put on the long-term story versus near-term supply risks.
