SpaceX (SPCX) debuted on June 12 at $135, surged 19% on its first trading day, and has since swung between $140 and $225. Wall Street remains divided, with average price targets near $145 and bearish calls as low as $62. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has spent over $500 million on the stock, targeting a $2.5 trillion valuation by 2030. Key catalysts include Starlink’s $11.4 billion in 2025 revenue and Starship’s development, while risks include Musk’s bankruptcy warning and insider lockup expirations. The stock joined the Nasdaq 100 on July 7 but slid 4.5% on July 10, reflecting ongoing volatility.
SpaceX’s stock has traded in a wide range since its IPO, with shares priced at $135 on June 12 before opening at $150 and closing the first day up nearly 19%. The stock has hit as high as $225.64 and as low as the $140s, then slid another 4.5% on July 10.
Wall Street analysts are split on the stock’s outlook. Average price targets sit near $145, while bearish calls place fair value as low as $62. Wedbush’s Dan Ives initiated coverage with an Outperform rating, calling the company “Much more of an AI play.” That view depends on SpaceX’s compute deals with Anthropic and Google, not just its rocket or Starlink businesses.
Starship has flown only 12 test flights and has not yet demonstrated in-orbit propellant transfer. Elon Musk warned in a 2021 internal memo about the Raptor engine program that the company faced a “genuine risk of bankruptcy,” a warning that appears in SpaceX’s IPO filings.
Starlink remains the most profitable segment, generating $11.4 billion in 2025 and accounting for 69% of total revenue by the first quarter of 2026. A near-term catalyst came on July 7 when SPCX joined the Nasdaq 100.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest spent more than $500 million on SpaceX on day one and has continued buying. On July 10, ARK added to its position across all four funds that hold the stock—ARKK, ARKQ, ARKW, and ARKX—making SpaceX the most bought name that day, ahead of a new position in Coinbase. ARK’s investment thesis states: “The company’s ability to re-use rockets results in structurally lower launch costs than competitors.”
Jim Cramer described the stock’s early trading by saying, “I clock SpaceX going up one point per hour.” An insider lockup expiration in late July and August could release up to 20% of insider shares for sale, adding uncertainty to the stock’s near-term direction.
