Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Tehran in late February, outflows from Iran’s largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, spiked by nearly $3 million. Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic reported funds moving to overseas platforms, but experts at TRM Labs argue this reflects market management under severe internet restrictions, not widespread capital flight. Overall transaction volume in Iran plunged 80%, suggesting state control and infrastructure strain during the geopolitical escalation.
A surge in withdrawals from Iran’s Nobitex exchange followed news of strikes on Tehran, moving nearly $3 million off the platform. Elliptic reported the outflows initially appeared to signal capital flight toward foreign exchanges.
However, TRM Labs provided a different analysis of the situation. “What we’re seeing in Iran is not clear evidence of mass capital flight, but rather a market managing volatility under constrained connectivity and regulatory intervention,” stated Ari Redbord, Global Head of Policy at TRM Labs.
The Iranian government imposed a 99% internet blackout after the attacks, severely disrupting market access. According to TRM Labs, overall transaction volumes fell 80% in the immediate aftermath.
The data suggests the Nobitex spike was likely an internal liquidity transfer. Redbord added, “In moments of geopolitical escalation, crypto markets often reflect both financial stress and infrastructure strain.”
A similar withdrawal event occurred during civil unrest in January, also followed by an internet shutdown. Globally, the total crypto market cap rose to around $2.32 trillion despite the tensions.
The global Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 14, signaling “Extreme Fear.” This pattern shows crypto remains a relevant, though imperfect, tool during regional crises.
