For the first time since 2019, Circle’s USDC stablecoin has overtaken Tether’s USDT in adjusted on-chain transaction volume, processing $2.2 trillion versus $1.3 trillion so far this year. This shift highlights growing real-world usage for USDC. Concurrently, a $2 billion USDC mint on Solana this week underscores its rising liquidity there, sparking analysis that Solana’s high transaction volume and USDC dominance could provide a structural advantage over Ethereum.
The stablecoin market shows that growth often matters more than market cap dominance. While Tether [USDT] holds over 55% of the $320 billion stablecoin market, a recent report highlighted that Circle’s USDC has overtaken USDT in “adjusted volume.” This metric tracks transfers resembling real economic activity, such as payments or funds moving between exchanges.
For context, USDC now makes up 64% of the volume between the two major stablecoins. According to the data, USDC has moved about $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume this year, topping USDT’s $1.3 trillion. This is the first time since 2019 that USDC has led in this metric, signaling a shift in which stablecoin is driving real on-chain activity.
Against this backdrop, prediction markets are becoming bullish on USDC. Polymarket is pricing a year-end market cap of $200 billion for USDT and $100 billion for USDC. Technically, that translates to just +8% growth for USDT versus +23% for USDC, a sign of strong confidence in USDC’s continued traction.
Shifts in stablecoin flows directly affect on-chain liquidity across Layer-1 networks. This context raises questions about how USDC’s high transaction volume could impact L1s, especially after Circle minted an extra $2 billion USDC on Solana [SOL] just this week. Furthermore, Solana’s transaction volume is nearly 30 times greater than Ethereum’s [ETH].
From a technical perspective, nearly 54% of Solana’s on-chain liquidity sits in USDC, with its supply increasing by 2.26% this week alone. Since USDC has dominated transaction volume this year, this could translate into stronger technical performance for SOL, potentially positioning the network to outperform Ethereum.
