XRP surged over 70% from $1.00 to $1.70 in a matter of days, driven by a broader market revival led by Bitcoin. However, the token was violently rejected at the $1.70 level and has since retraced to around $1.40. Analysts from ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini remain cautious, classifying the move as a potential relief rally within a broader bear market. Key technical hurdles, including the 33-month EMA near $1.60 and the $1.60 structural resistance, remain unbroken. While whale activity has returned, experts assign only a 55% probability that the recent $0.98–$0.99 low marked the cycle bottom.
XRP was a no-show for weeks, losing multiple key support zones and eventually slumping to $1.00. It dipped below that level last week for the first time in 21 months.
On Wednesday afternoon, Bitcoin rallied the altcoin troops and initiated a market-wide revival. Ripple’s token was late to the party but then skyrocketed from $1.00 to $1.42 within a day or two, marking a multi-month high.
Bulls pushed the asset to $1.70 on Saturday, a 70% surge in days. However, the token was violently rejected there and is now back toward $1.40.
The question is whether the bear market has ended. ChatGPT admitted the move was “huge” and “absolutely changes the short-term picture,” but put the odds of the $0.98–$0.99 low being the bottom at just 55%.
ChatGPT noted there is still a 45% probability that this was a relief rally inside a broader bear market. It stated: “The reason is simple: $1.60–$1.70 is exactly where XRP starts confronting the long-term trend, not where it conclusively breaks it.”
Grok outlined the bigger picture. Even with the brief surge, XRP remains roughly 60% away from its July 2025 all-time high and is deep in the red on a year-to-date scale.
The positive side suggests that large market participants, often referred to as whales, have returned to the XRP scene. They have purchased millions of tokens in the past week alone.
Gemini was cautious as well, outlining major hurdles still in XRP’s path. The first is the 33-month EMA at around $1.60, which XRP has challenged unsuccessfully so far.
On the plus side, XRP has seemingly reclaimed the 200-day EMA at around $1.34. If it closes above that level on the weekly scale, it could shift the narrative from bearish to bullish.
Gemini’s verdict echoed ChatGPT and Grok: the rally proves that “heavy demand still exists at key psychological levels.” However, the firm concluded: “Until XRP can cleanly break and hold above the 200-day EMA and the $1.60 structural resistance, this move is technically classified as a ‘relief rally’ within a broader consolidation phase.”
