Nearly $18 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire on September 25, marking the largest such expiry of the year. Open interest data indicates a bullish bias, with Bitcoin’s put/call ratio at 0.76 and Ethereum’s at 0.64, suggesting traders are positioned for upside. However, recent geopolitical tensions triggered a $1 trillion sell-off in US markets that spilled into crypto, and over $400 million in long positions were liquidated on September 23. Despite this, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $350 million in inflows, helping Bitcoin hold near $85,000. The expiry event could introduce significant volatility as traders close or roll positions.
The next 24 hours represent the first crucial test of crypto’s October setup, as over $18 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire on September 25. According to Deribit data, this is the largest expiry by value of the year.
Larger options expiries tend to see increased volatility as traders close or roll positions. Bitcoin alone accounts for more than $14 billion in expiring options, with a put/call ratio of 0.76 that implies calls are outweighing puts.
Ethereum has over $2 billion in options expiring, as stated, with a calls-to-puts ratio of 1.56 and a put/call ratio of 0.64, even more skewed toward calls. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s max pain price is at approximately $78,000, while Ethereum’s is near $2,300.
Geopolitical tensions caused a sell-off of over $1 trillion in US markets that spilled into crypto, creating a bearish environment despite long positioning in derivatives. According to CoinGlass data, more than $400 million in long positions were liquidated on September 23, marking the strongest weekly long squeeze.
Bitcoin spot ETFs still saw over $350 million in inflows, helping offset selling pressure, and Bitcoin dropped only 2% to stay around $85,000. Strong spot buying is absorbing considerable supply, and Bitcoin is holding well above its max pain level, keeping the bullish setup ahead of the $18 billion expiry.
