Analyst Merlijn The Trader warns Bitcoin could face a substantial decline based on historical patterns observed in midterm election years. His worst-case scenario predicts a plunge to $33,000, while a less severe projection suggests a drop to between $45,000 and $59,000.
Renowned analyst Merlijn The Trader outlined a historical pattern that could be painful for Bitcoin. His targets are quite worrying, with the worst-case scenario predicting a massive plunge to $33,000.
Following Bitcoin’s rejection at $82,000 and a subsequent correction to $78,000, bearish sentiment increased. Merlijn noted that Bitcoin has significantly underperformed in previous midterm election years. According to his data, the asset fell by 61% in 2014, by 65% in 2018, and by 66% in 2022.
He warned, “Three cycles. Three dumps. Zero exceptions.” If this pattern plays out now, Bitcoin could plunge to $33,000. Although there are potentially bullish factors, Merlijn added that “the calendar has never been wrong.”
In a separate post, Merlijn talked about a different historical pattern Bitcoin could be mimicking from 2021. He outlined the six steps the cryptocurrency went through at that time. He suggested Bitcoin could be in the Accumulation phase now.
If that is the case, Bitcoin could be on the verge of another decline. This scenario is slightly less bearish, with Merlijn’s targets between $45,000 and $59,000. The key is the $78,000 support level currently being tested.
If Bitcoin loses that level, it could drop to those targets. However, if it manages to hold, the run might be closer than expected.
