SpaceX stock (SPCX) remains under pressure, trading near $118–$123 as of late July 2026, nearly 48% below its 52-week high of $225.64. A sustained recovery is unlikely before early 2027 due to a series of insider lock-up expirations beginning August 6, 2026, which will release 911.5 million shares worth roughly $116 billion. The company reports its first earnings on August 4, but analysts are deeply divided: Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas maintains a $300 price target, while Morningstar’s Nicolas Owens estimates just $63. Until the lock-up overhang clears, share supply will dictate near-term price action.
SpaceX stock (SPCX) has traded in a tight band over the past few days, closing between $118.24 on July 23, 2026, and $123.54 on July 21, 2026, still nearly 48% below its 52-week high of $225.64. The near-term outlook depends on how much stock insiders dump in the coming months, with the 52-week low of $110.85 acting as a floor for now.
SpaceX’s market cap sits at $1.56 trillion, with a 52-week range from $110.85 to $225.64 and no P/E ratio since the company is not profitable. The gap between the most bearish and most bullish SpaceX stock prediction 2027 calls on Wall Street explains the uncertainty around a recovery.
SpaceX reports its first-ever quarterly earnings on August 4, 2026, and a strong Starlink number or a clean Starship milestone could spark a short rally. Two days later, on August 6, 2026, the first big lock-up expires, freeing 911.5 million shares worth roughly $116 billion, with staggered releases continuing through December 2026.
SpaceX posted a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and another $4.28 billion net loss in Q1 2026, driven by heavy Starship and AI infrastructure spending. Trading at over 84 times trailing revenue, the current forecast only holds if Starlink’s cash flow scales dramatically.
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, citing vertical integration and long-term growth. Oppenheimer’s Timothy Horan set a $190 Outperform rating, noting no other publicly traded company operates across SpaceX’s three core verticals. Morningstar’s Nicolas Owens, however, landed on a $63 fair value estimate using a probability-weighted DCF model.
Consensus among 33 analysts puts the average 12-month price target near $240, with estimates ranging from $63 to $800. Until the lock-up overhang clears, share supply, rather than earnings, will likely dictate the stock’s near-term path.
