Anthropic is moving closer to its initial public offering, with prediction market traders assigning a 70% probability of an October listing and an 83% chance by year-end. Data from Polymarket shows just a 2% likelihood by September 15 and 10% by September 30. The company confidentially filed for a US IPO in June, and executives have been meeting with prospective investors. Some investors are targeting a $2 trillion valuation for the debut. Reuters reports that Anthropic forecasts roughly $190 billion to $200 billion in 2028 revenue, compared with a $47 billion annualized run rate disclosed in May.
Anthropic appears to be moving closer to its initial public offering, expected to be one of the most closely watched technology listings of 2026.
Prediction market traders are leaning heavily toward an October debut. The Polymarket contract tracking whether Anthropic will go public by September 15 implies just a 2% chance, while the probability for September 30 stands at 10%.
By October 31, the odds jumped to 70%, with an 83% chance of an IPO by year-end. The October probability increased sharply in recent sessions, suggesting growing trader confidence.
Recent reporting supports that view. The Wall Street Journal said that executives have been meeting with prospective investors ahead of an IPO that could arrive in September or early October.
Anthropic confidentially filed for a US IPO in June, giving it flexibility once regulatory review and market conditions allow.
Some investors are targeting a $2 trillion valuation for an October debut, according to a report that outlined the figure. That would be more than double the $965 billion post-money valuation from its May funding round, though the company has not confirmed the IPO date or valuation.
Whether public investors support such a figure likely depends on Anthropic‘s growth projections. Reuters reported the company forecasts roughly $190 billion to $200 billion in 2028 revenue, compared with a $47 billion annualized run rate disclosed in May.
Bankers and investors are looking unusually far into the future when assessing the firm’s worth. They are accounting for rapid growth and the high costs of training cutting-edge AI models.
