Bitcoin’s price remains stagnant as global equity markets surge, highlighting a prolonged period of decoupling between the two asset classes. The S&P 500 recovered swiftly from geopolitical tensions and reached a record high, while Bitcoin trades roughly 40% below its own peak. On-chain analysts note this is the longest stretch of weak correlation since 2020.
Bitcoin has shown a muted reaction to a thawing Middle East conflict, starkly contrasting with the stock market’s rapid recovery. The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high above $7,000 on April 15, fully recovering from recent losses in a matter of weeks. Meanwhile, Bitcoin trades around $75,000, roughly 40% below its all-time high of over $126,000 set in October 2025.
On-chain analyst Darkfost highlighted this divergence in detail. He noted, “This period of weak correlation or even decoupling from the S&P 500 is the longest observed since 2020.” Despite typically following major indices, Bitcoin at times operates under its own internal dynamics, leading to such divergence.
The S&P 500 rose 10 out of the past 11 trading sessions, gaining more than 10% across that period. Market data account Quantifiable Edges noted this recovery speed was historically unusual, as the index moved from a 100-day low to a 200-day closing high in just 11 days. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee expects crypto to be among the leaders in the next leg of the rally alongside Mag7 and software stocks.
Bitcoin’s technical picture adds another layer to the divergence observation. Analyst Ali Martinez says Bitcoin is testing the 100-day simple moving average as resistance for the third time in six months. The first two tests resulted in significant price rejections of 30% and 39%, respectively. A third rejection could be a major structural failure, while a break above would open a path toward $80,000 to $84,000.
