Federal investigators are examining George Santos for alleged insider trading on prediction market Kalshi. According to a report, the pardoned former congressman wagered against his own attendance at a presidential address while publicly stating he would attend, netting tens of thousands of dollars. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Department of Justice have opened probes after Kalshi flagged the activity, extending a recent wave of scrutiny over prediction markets.
Two federal agencies are examining trades the pardoned former congressman George Santos allegedly placed on prediction market Kalshi. The probes focus on bets he made against his own attendance at President Donald Trump‘s State of the Union address while telling the public he planned to show.
Kalshi detected the activity, suspended his account, and referred the case to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice. Santos allegedly cleared tens of thousands of dollars in profit by deceiving other bettors about his February plans.
The day before the address, Santos tweeted, “I’m going to be there for the State of Union in the gallery, guys,” which boosted the odds he would attend. During the speech, he flipped, “Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML,” as sources said he had already wagered against his appearance.
Asked about the investigation, Santos said, “Well, that’s news to me,” and declined to confirm or deny having a Kalshi account. The allegations follow other recent federal prosecutions related to prediction market insider trading.
Last month, federal prosecutors charged a Google engineer over roughly $2.75 million in Polymarket bets that netted about $1.2 million. That case followed an Army sergeant charged with using classified intelligence to win Polymarket bets on geopolitical events.
Lawmakers have also opened a congressional investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket. They demanded records after a review flagged more than 80 suspicious trades on the platform.
A legal expert noted the allegations against Santos may not fit traditional insider trading law. Yuriy Brisov, partner at Digital & Analogue Partners, said the case appears “closer to manipulation: move a price with a false signal, then trade against it.”
He added that prediction markets themselves are not the problem and platforms should restrict participants who can control outcomes. Brisov said recent safeguards adopted by the platforms are “why Santos was caught.”
