The Social Security Administration is forecast to raise benefits by approximately 3.8% for the 2027 Cost-of-Living Adjustment, according to projections from The Senior Citizens League and analyst Mary Johnson. This would mark the sixth consecutive year of above-average raises, a streak not seen since 1988–1997, though rising Medicare Part B premiums continue to offset some of the increase. The final figure, based on third-quarter CPI-W data, will be locked in October 2026.
The Social Security Administration ties every COLA to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. The agency compares third-quarter data with the same period a year earlier to set the raise for the following January.
Tariff-driven inflation and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz after the conflict with Iran pushed this year’s estimate higher. Trailing inflation hit a three-year high in May before cooling after the June report.
Mary Johnson said: “This is a significant drop in inflation, and one that we’ve rarely seen in the June CPI data over the past five years.” She lowered her own projection from 4.7% to 3.7% after the June data, while The Senior Citizens League held its forecast steady at 3.8% for a second straight month.
At 3.8%, the average retired worker benefit would climb by about $77 a month. However, Medicare Part B premiums are deducted directly from monthly checks.
The latest Medicare Trustees Report puts the standard Part B premium at $209.50 a month in 2027, a 3.25% increase. Between 2024 and 2026, Part B premium hikes of 5.9%, 5.9%, and 9.7% outpaced COLAs of 3.2%, 2.5%, and 2.8%, leaving buying power about 20% lower than in 2010.
If the 2027 COLA lands at 3.7% or 3.8%, Social Security benefits would outgrow Medicare Part B premiums for the first time in years. Not all analysts agree on the final figure.
David Enna of Tipswatch estimates 3.6%, matching a separate projection from AARP. He notes that July through September, the months the formula uses, often swing unpredictably, with a deflationary month appearing in six of the past twelve years.
The Social Security Administration states: “The purpose of the COLA is to ensure that the purchasing power of Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits is not eroded by inflation.” The final number will be announced in October 2026, giving the 71 million recipients a rough idea of the 2027 adjustment.
