Bitcoin’s drop to approximately $57,700 at the end of June may have completed the worst phase of its 2026 bear market. The crypto investment firm BIT stated in a July 17 update that the broader price structure has closely matched its original forecast. While the firm acknowledged it underestimated the impact of geopolitical tensions and hawkish Federal Reserve policy, it is now assessing whether that low marked the end of the correction. However, other analysts, including CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech, point to the reversal of spot Bitcoin ETF demand as a significant market headwind.
BIT’s latest report builds on research from June 12, which argued Bitcoin had entered the final stage of its bear market. The firm had outlined an Elliott Wave A-B-C correction pattern, predicting a drop into the $60,000 to $69,000 range and a final Wave C decline during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. That forecast mostly played out, with BTC plunging from around $97,000 to $62,900 in February before recovering to about $82,000 in May, described as a “counter-trend rally within a bear market.”
The report noted that Bitcoin eventually hit $57,700 at the end of June after geopolitical tensions and changing expectations for US monetary policy weighed on risk assets. In its update, BIT acknowledged underestimating the conflict between the United States and Iran, which pushed inflation higher than expected, and the new Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance. The firm has now shifted attention to the 21-week moving average as an important gauge for determining if the market has transitioned back into a longer-term uptrend.
However, CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech argued that spot Bitcoin ETF flows, a major driver of the rally, have dropped notably in 2026. The analyst pointed out that cumulative net inflows were over 500,000 BTC in 2024 and about 250,000 BTC in 2025, but 2026 has seen funds bleed out roughly 120,000 BTC. The analyst asked, “If ETF demand drove the rally up, how can you be bullish while that demand reversed completely?” At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $63,000, down almost 3% in 24 hours and over 50% below its all-time high.
