Bitcoin’s breakout above $66,000 has shifted the market narrative from a local bottom to a macro bottom, according to recent technical analysis. Analyst Ali Martinez observed that Bitcoin flashed three technical signals—monthly RSI near 43.65, Chande Momentum Oscillator near -71, and price near its 50-month moving average—that historically coincided with macro cycle bottoms. This pattern preceded major rallies in 2015, 2019, and 2022. However, liquidity concerns persist: stablecoin dominance has climbed to around 13%, the total stablecoin market cap has fallen by more than $10 billion over the past month, and stablecoins have been leaving exchanges for 35 consecutive days. The price breakout lacks fresh liquidity, casting doubt on whether the move can sustain enough momentum to decisively enter the $70,000 zone.
The market narrative is shifting from a local bottom to a macro bottom, fueled by Bitcoin’s breakout above $66,000. While BTC consolidated between $60,000 and $65,000, discussion focused on whether it was simply a local bottom; now, attention is moving toward a potential climb into the $70,000 region.
According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin has flashed the same three technical signals that historically coincided with macro cycle bottoms. These include the monthly RSI dropping to around 43.65, the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) falling to roughly -71, and Bitcoin trading near its 50-month moving average.
This pattern repeated in 2015 near $235, preceding a rally of more than 8,300%. In early 2019, it appeared near $3,333 ahead of a 1,900% gain, and in late 2022 near $16,000, shortly after Bitcoin bottomed near $15,000, before a 675% rally.
Bitcoin’s correction to $58,000 last month triggered the same setup. If history is a guide, this alignment has consistently marked one of Bitcoin’s strongest long-term accumulation zones.
However, liquidity remains a key test. Stablecoin dominance has climbed to around 13%, narrowing the gap with Ethereum’s 10%+ market dominance, while the total stablecoin market cap has fallen by more than $10 billion over the past month.
On-chain data shows Bitcoin is holding above $65,000, but the liquidity needed to sustain the rally appears to be fading. Stablecoins have been leaving exchanges for 35 consecutive days, while Bitcoin has yet to see a meaningful pickup in spot accumulation.
Against this backdrop, the shift from a local bottom to a macro bottom may still need stronger confirmation. Bitcoin’s breakout above $66,000 is technically bullish, but the lack of fresh liquidity suggests the move could struggle to sustain enough momentum for a decisive breakout into the $70,000 zone.
