Bitcoin surged over 2.7% to pass $78,000, breaking a key descending resistance line that had capped its price since October 2025. The move, triggered by geopolitical news from the Middle East, has shifted sentiment on prediction markets, where traders now see a 69% chance of Bitcoin reaching $84,000. However, the same market assigns only a 6.2% probability of a new all-time high occurring before July.
Bitcoin climbed above $78,000 intraday after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz would remain fully open during an ongoing ceasefire. This geopolitical trigger sent oil prices tumbling and risk assets surging in tandem, with digital asset treasury stocks like Strategy jumping more than 10%.
The macro environment had been difficult for most of 2026, with Middle East tensions and inflation fears keeping Bitcoin in a grinding descent from its October 2025 peak of $126,000. Today’s price action finally invalidated the descending resistance trendline that had rejected every rally attempt for seven months.
Indicators show a complex picture, with a bearish death cross pattern still in place but beginning to compress. The Average Directional Index reads 18.1, indicating the bearish trend is weak, while the Relative Strength Index at 67.7 shows Bitcoin is nearing overbought territory.
On the prediction market Myriad, developed by Decrypt‘s parent company Dastan, traders are placing 69% odds on Bitcoin hitting $84K before dropping to $55K. A separate market gives Bitcoin only a 6% chance of hitting a new all-time high before July.
