Bitcoin analyst Frank Cappelleri says the cryptocurrency’s current chart resembles the setup that preceded a 400% rally last cycle, though he is not projecting that exact return. BTC traded near $84,000, up 10% over 14 days but down 27% year-over-year. Large holders added 41,025 BTC in 10 days, and BIT Research argues the bear market ended, with a bullish scenario of $185,000 to $215,000. However, analyst Ali Martinez warns that Bitcoin has fallen after each of the previous four U.S. midterm elections, with declines ranging from 27% to 72%.
Bitcoin analyst Frank Cappelleri says the OG cryptocurrency’s chart resembles the setup that preceded a 400% rally last cycle. According to the CappThesis founder, the same technical base could support another leg higher.
Speaking on CNBC, Cappelleri compared Bitcoin’s current structure with the period spanning 2022 and 2023, when BTC suffered a decline of about 70%. He pointed to a chart of Bitcoin’s roughly 54% decline this cycle and set it beside the 70% drop mentioned above. “This also looks like a bullish pattern to me,” he said.
That earlier slide ended in a large breakout, and he argued that BTC can move up hard once momentum takes hold. “Bitcoin can really rally,” the analyst said. “It’s a 400% gain.” However, he was careful not to project the same return this time. “Not calling for that,” Cappelleri stated, adding that he was instead looking for “a very similar foundation” that could eventually take Bitcoin back to new highs.
Cappelleri also pointed to BTC’s historical response to technical signals, saying, “Bitcoin really does well with technicals,” and arguing that its past price behavior makes those signals difficult to ignore. BTC was valued at about $84,000 at the time of writing. The cryptocurrency experienced an increase of just over 1% in the last 24 hours and has remained stable during the week.
It has appreciated by about 10% in 14 days and 7% in 30 days but is 27% lower than where it stood one year ago. The asset’s third-quarter gain came to about 42%, its best Q3 since 2017.
Other market signals point to a contested setup. Larger Bitcoin holders have added to their balances while smaller wallets have remained unchanged. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added 41,025 BTC over 10 days, taking their combined balance to 13.64 million BTC, with such scenarios in the past often leading to stronger market conditions.
BIT Research has argued that the bear market ended after Bitcoin held above $62,900 in late July. Its analysis puts the True Market Mean, an estimate of the average holder cost, at around $76,900, thus removing another source of selling pressure. The firm outlined a bullish scenario of $185,000 to $215,000, while acknowledging that the timing and path remain uncertain.
But other analysis is less straightforward. Ali Martinez noted that BTC had fallen after each of the four previous U.S. midterm elections, with declines ranging from 27% to 72%, adding another source of uncertainty as November approaches.
