Bitcoin’s price rebounded toward $78,000 as analysts linked the recovery to easing geopolitical tensions between the USA and Iran and the prospect of a Middle East peace deal. Some market watchers expect an initial price dip before a potential broader rally, while on-chain data points to recent selling pressure from exchange inflows and ETF outflows.
Bitcoin climbed back toward $78,000 on Monday following eased tensions between the USA and Iran. Analysts tied this rebound to the prospect of a broader recovery across risk assets.
Some analysts expect an initial dip in BTC’s price even if a peace deal is confirmed before a broader rally resumes. Trader Sykodelic warned that a peace deal announcement might produce an initial dip before any sustained move higher.
He stated, “Take out the weekend lows, another go at that $74,000 level, tempt the bears one more time…then we run it up leading into June.” Analyst Michaël van de Poppe laid out a chain of events expected from a peace agreement.
He wrote, “Oil goes down. Yields go down. Risk on assets will do well. Bitcoin breaks above $80k+ again. Altcoins will have their time for the entire summer.” On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. flagged a concerning data point from last week.
He noted that around 18,000 BTC flowed onto exchanges while US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of roughly 16,000 BTC. Adler concluded, “ETF demand did not absorb the exchange inflow. It added to the pressure.”
Another market watcher, Merlijn The Trader, put a short-term target on the $82,000 range. He described it as a liquidity cluster where trapped sellers will face pressure, but he explicitly expects to set up a short position there.
Bitcoin was trading near $77,500, well off its weekly high and down about 38% from its all-time high above $126,000 set in October 2025. Analyst Dean Crypto Trades previously argued that BTC needs to reclaim the low $80,000 area to establish a higher low.
