Between September 17th and 25th, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows totaling $2.88 billion, coinciding with a 10.26% price rally for BTC despite a dip from $87,300 to $82,900. A tightening of Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands in mid-September around the $74,000-$76,000 zone was followed by a bullish breakout past $82,300. Exchange net flows turned negative, with 31,400 BTC—worth roughly $2.6 billion—leaving exchanges between September 22nd and 25th, suggesting long-term accumulation. Long-term holder realized profits sit at 72%, a level analysts described as closer to bear market trends, implying holders are waiting for further gains.
From September 17th to 25th, spot Bitcoin ETF net flows totaled $2.88 billion. During this period, BTC’s price rallied by 10.26%, which included a dip from $87,300 to $82,900 earlier in the week.
Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands tightened in mid-September when the price consolidated around the $74,000-$76,000 zone. A swift breakout past the $82,300 local highs signaled another bullish expansion phase.
The uptrend remained unbroken, although a dip towards $80,000-$82,000 could occur. The latest price dip was attributed to U.S.-Iran tensions.
Strong demand has turned year-to-date spot ETF flows to Bitcoin positive. A weekly session close above the previous May swing high at $82,850 would confirm a bullish trend shift on higher timeframes.
U.S. Treasury intervention to control bond yields is seen as net inflationary. This could drive demand for scarce assets such as Bitcoin.
A $351.6 million hack on Bitget affected short-term market sentiment. Bitget claimed its User Protection Fund exceeded the estimated losses and that user funds would be protected.
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. drew attention to the direction of exchange Bitcoin flows. Despite the Bitget hack, the reaction on popular exchanges was a steady outflow of coins, likely for long-term accumulation.
From September 22nd to 25th, the cumulative net flow was a negative 31,400 BTC, worth around $2.6 billion. In fact, 12,500 BTC left exchanges in a single hour on September 22nd.
The selling pressure from long-term holders would likely not be considerably heated up. The LTH realized profit and loss metric was at 72% at press time.
While this looked high, in December 2024 their profits reached nearly 350%. Crypto analyst Darkfost observed that current LTH profit levels are now closer to bear market trends, meaning a majority of long-term holders are likely to wait for further price gains before selling.
