Bitcoin has achieved a significant technical milestone, trading around $78.3k as the first weekend of May begins. It has closed above its 100-day moving average and broken out of a long-term descending channel that contained the entire bearish trend. This move is supported by strong momentum indicators and a critical on-chain supply picture that indicates why the path ahead may become more challenging.
Bitcoin’s price is approaching the higher boundary of its mid-term ascending channel after reclaiming the 100-day moving average. The RSI on the daily chart is climbing toward 70, showing consistent bullish readings while still leaving room for follow-through.
The immediate test remains the $80k supply zone, which has capped the price on every approach since February. A clean daily close above this area would open the path toward the $90k level, with the 200-day moving average also in the way near the $85k mark.
On the downside, the lower boundary of the current zone at $75k is now the first line of support to defend. This level is followed by the 100-day moving average located just below it.
The 4-hour chart shows a textbook post-breakout structure. The asset broke above the $75k level, pulled back to retest it, and has since pushed back toward the $79k region.
The upper channel boundary and the $80k psychological level are converging as the immediate ceiling. A 4-hour close above the recent highs near $79.5k, with the RSI also holding below the overbought region, keeps the bullish structure intact.
With 64.2% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply currently in profit, the recovery from the February low has made meaningful progress. The remaining 35.8% underwater tells the more important story.
The bulk of that loss-making supply was acquired between $80k and $125k during the late 2025 distribution phase. This means BTC is now entering the price range where a large cohort of holders approaches breakeven, and the incentive to sell intensifies.
Historically, crossing the 75–80% supply-in-profit threshold has marked the point where correction-driven overhead pressure meaningfully subsides. The current reading of 64.2% confirms that this threshold has not yet been reached.
