Bitcoin ended the first half of 2026 near $60,000, down approximately 32% since January and more than 50% from its October 2025 record high of roughly $126,000. The cryptocurrency has now spent 275 days below that peak, according to Binance Research, which described the decline as a third consecutive quarterly loss across global financial markets.
Bitcoin ended the first half of 2026 near $60,000 after falling about 32% since January, according to a report from Binance Research. The Half-Year 2026: Macro & Bitcoin report described the decline as a third consecutive quarterly loss across broader financial markets worldwide.
The weak first-half performance extended Bitcoin’s longer-term drawdown. As stated in the report, the asset has fallen more than 50% from its October 2025 record high near $126,000 and has spent 275 days below that peak.
Binance Research reported that on-chain data showed 10.83 million BTC ended the period in unrealized loss, while 9.22 million units remained profitable. This marked the first loss-over-profit crossover during the current market cycle. The researchers noted similar crossovers have historically appeared near major Bitcoin market bottoms before stronger recoveries eventually followed.
However, they cautioned that historical patterns alone cannot confirm the current cycle will produce the same outcome. Binance Research attributed Bitcoin’s weak performance mainly to broader macroeconomic conditions rather than crypto-specific developments.
The report said markets shifted from liquidity-driven expectations toward economic fundamentals as monetary policy remained restrictive. Expectations for interest rates also changed as futures markets reflected an 80% probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase before December.
The report also cited higher real yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and tighter liquidity as ongoing pressures on Bitcoin. While technology stocks rebounded on artificial intelligence optimism, BTC lagged behind many major asset classes during the same period.
A resilient U.S. economy reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon. Core PCE inflation rose to 3.4%, its highest level since late 2023, reinforcing concerns that price pressures remain stubborn. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $5.4 billion in net outflows during the first half of the year.
