The amount of Bitcoin held long-term by investors has grown significantly, adding over 3 million BTC in three months. However, data shows some of these long-term holders are now selling their coins at a loss, indicating market stress. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. states this creates a neutral-to-cautious picture, with a potential bearish shift if the selling of older coins accelerates and the supply metric reverses.
Bitcoin’s long-term holder cohort has expanded its holdings to 8.32 million BTC as of April 16, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr.. This marks an addition of 3.06 million BTC over three months and a yearly rise from 4.35 million BTC.
This metric tracks Bitcoin unmoved for over 155 days. Growth partly stems from existing coins maturing into the long-term category rather than just new purchases.
The supply surged from 4.16 million to 8.32 million BTC over the past year. This indicates compression of liquid supply amid consolidation around $76,000.
Adler stated that a downward reversal in the Realized Supply figure would serve as a key deterioration indicator. It would mean old coins are returning to circulation.
Simultaneously, Bitcoin’s long-term holder SOPR has dipped below 1.0 for five consecutive days. This means these holders are currently spending coins at a loss.
Adler explained that SOPR measures profitability only for spent coins, not the full cohort. He described the present pattern as local stress and not capitulation.
The combined metrics present a neutral-to-cautious market picture. Long-term holder supply growth provides a structurally positive base while SOPR drops highlight short-term pressure from loss-taking sales.
A rapid SOPR rebound with continued supply gains would confirm weakness as fleeting. Conversely, prolonged SOPR below 1.0 alongside a supply downturn would indicate a bearish regime change.
Separately, Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index has dropped into a historic undervaluation zone. With BTC trading just above $76,000, this setup indicates a potential “value-accumulation” phase.
However, the 90-day moving average’s continued decline warns that selling pressure lingers. The market currently watches for whether SOPR holds above March lows or breaks lower.
