Bitcoin may have already reached its price bottom, as analysts increasingly question whether the four-year cycle remains applicable. Grayscale argues the asset has matured and is now driven by macroeconomic forces, suggesting prices could stabilize without a traditional deep decline. Other analysts note current technical patterns mirror previous market bottoms, though some metrics allow for further downside. The debate splits between those expecting a cycle low in late 2024 and those who believe crypto has already established a floor.
The debate over Bitcoin’s bear market is split between two views. One camp holds to the traditional four-year cycle, while the other believes the bottom may already be in.
Supporters of the four-year cycle see halving events as the main price driver. They expect the current downturn to follow past patterns, where Bitcoin reached its bottom around one year after a cyclical peak, with cumulative declines averaging about 80%.
Grayscale subscribes to an alternative view that BTC has matured as an asset. The firm stated that previous bear markets have “coincided with periods of slowing economic growth and rising real interest rates.”
Under this macro-driven framework, Grayscale said the asset could find its bottom when broader economic conditions improve. The firm added that if the Fed refrains from further rate hikes, BTC’s price “may have already reached its low.”
Crypto trader Killa stated that Bitcoin’s market structure suggests the bottom may already be in. However, he remains “50/50” because the current cycle would have bottomed in around 260 days, compared to the typical 365 days.
Analyst Ali Martinez noted the monthly chart displays the same technical signals seen near the end of past bear markets. He acknowledged that on-chain metrics leave room for a decline toward the $40,000-$50,000 range, but the current setup has historically identified a dominant accumulation zone.
Analyst Doctor Profit warned that investors waiting for a traditional bottom in September or October could miss the market’s next move. While Bitcoin could still revisit $54,000, he does not expect a drop below $50,000.
