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HomeNewsBitcoin Rally a Trap; Analyst Predicts Crash to $45K

Bitcoin Rally a Trap; Analyst Predicts Crash to $45K

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Bitcoin surged from the low $60,000s to nearly $80,000 this past week, but trader Nonzee describes the move as a liquidity squeeze rather than a genuine reversal. They argue that $3.1 billion in short positions were wiped out, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $1.65 billion, and that the rally has been driven by forced buying. Nonzee predicts the next leg will be downward, with a projected path from $77,000 to $67,000, then $55,000, before settling between $45,000 and $48,000. Bitcoin was trading around $78,000 at writing, up 22% weekly but still 39% below its all-time high.


Bitcoin’s sharp rally from the low $60,000s to just under $80,000 this past week appears to be a trap built on forced buying rather than real demand, according to trader Nonzee. They call the move a liquidity squeeze, not a reversal.

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More than $3.1 billion in short positions were wiped out during the run, with Bitcoin alone responsible for roughly $1.65 billion of that figure. As Nonzee stated, “That was not a reversal. It was a liquidity squeeze.”

The trader tied the timing to two catalysts: renewed headlines around the CLARITY Act and the Treasury Department increasing its long-term bond buybacks. Both factors forced shorts out and pulled fresh longs into an already stretched market.

Nonzee notes that the $70,000 fair value gap has now been filled, the short squeeze has run its course, and FOMO buying is occurring in real time. Next will come distribution and then a selloff, with a downside path from $77,000 to $67,000, then $55,000, and finally a leg down to between $48,000 and $45,000.

Bitcoin was trading around $78,000 at the time of writing, up roughly 2% on the day and about 22% over the past week, according to CoinGecko. It has swung between $76,000 and $79,000 in the last 24 hours alone, remaining 39% below its all-time high of around $126,000 set in October 2025.

The past few days have been rough for traders in both directions. BTC briefly touched almost $80,000 on Friday before slipping to around $75,500 over the weekend, as reports emerged that market maker Wintermute had built a sizable short position on Hyperliquid. During that stretch, altcoins fared worse, with ETH down 5% and XRP off by more than 6%.

The bounce pushed the Fear and Greed Index to its highest reading since last October’s crash, a jump some compare to conditions right before that selloff wiped out billions in leveraged positions. Elsewhere, HYPE printed a new all-time high above $82 even as BTC cooled off.

Data from analyst nocoffeenobrain shows open interest climbing from around $22 billion to nearly $25 billion during the rally, a slower pace than the price move itself. This points to traders adding positions cautiously rather than piling on leverage all at once.

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