Bitcoin’s rally resembles past bull run patterns as it pushes back into the $85k-$90k range. Short-term holders (under 150 days) have returned to breakeven levels, reducing selling pressure. The Fear and Greed Index entered ‘extreme greed’ on September 22, surpassing levels seen during BTC’s $126k peak in late 2025. ETF demand surged with $937.3 million in net inflows on September 21, the largest single-day inflow since October 2025. However, elevated leverage and extreme sentiment raise the risk of a bull-trap if BTC fails to break $90k. Historical MVRV crossovers suggest a potential healthier recovery phase.
Bitcoin’s current rally is starting to resemble patterns seen during previous bull runs. On the weekly chart, BTC’s 7%+ rally has pushed the price back into the $85k-$90k range observed earlier this year.
Short-term holders—those who have held BTC for less than 150 days—are now back around their breakeven levels. This implies that recent buyers are recovering their unrealized losses as Bitcoin moves higher.
A fresh wave of euphoria could trigger a local top for Bitcoin. The latest reading of the Fear and Greed Index shows that BTC entered ‘extreme greed’ on September 22 for the first time since the Q3 2025 cycle, a more stretched level than when BTC hit $126k in late September–early October 2025.
Bitcoin ETF demand has surged substantially, with $937.3 million in net inflows on September 21. This marked the largest single-day inflow since BTC’s October 2025 peak, and as Bitcoin trades near eight-month highs, ETF investors appear to be chasing the rally again.
The euphoria is also spilling into derivatives. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin’s 24-hour liquidation heatmap highlights a large pool of long liquidity just above the current trading range, suggesting an accumulation of leverage as BTC approaches higher levels. This scenario can result in a bull-trap should BTC fail to break above $90k.
Historical setups provide context. In both 2019 and 2023, Bitcoin’s MVRV (Market Value over Realized Value) crossed back above its 365-day average following negative momentum, signaling a healthier profit zone with improving investor profitability. The current crossover appears to exhibit similar traits.
The reversal of short-term holders to breakeven can be seen as a positive development. As BTC moves above the average cost of recent buyers, selling pressure from underwater holders is expected to ease, paving the way for the market to move higher. This could keep FOMO among ETF investors high, potentially triggering a short squeeze that traps late shorts and propels the rally further. If this trend continues, it could pave the way for Bitcoin’s $90k breakout.
