Bitcoin rallied 6% on Friday, reclaiming $80,000 as crude oil prices slipped below $100 per barrel, easing fears of oil-driven inflation and sparking a rebound across U.S. equity and crypto markets. Fidelity’s Head of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, cited two signals—a one-year Bitcoin winter and a positive BTC/gold correlation—as confirmation of a durable bottom. He suggested a new four-year bull market cycle may be underway, driven by potential government “financial repression” that could boost demand for scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold. Technical analysts noted Bitcoin’s move above the 50-week moving average, with a clear breakout if the weekly close holds. Trader Bob Loukas flagged $82,000 as a key resistance, with potential to push toward $90,000.
Bitcoin surged 6% on Friday and reclaimed $80,000 as crude oil prices dropped below $100 per barrel, easing inflation concerns and lifting both U.S. equity and crypto markets.
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Head of Global Macro, stated that BTC has held above $60,000 for about a year. He noted two signals—the one-year Bitcoin winter and a positive BTC/gold correlation—as indicators of a durable bottom.
“That’s how long a typical Bitcoin winter lasts (1 year), so I’m sensing that a new 4-year cycle bull market is underway,” Timmer said, according to a post on X. He added that the market is now in a ‘new secular regime of higher cost of capital,’ and expects government response through ‘financial repression,’ including potential money printing.
This intervention, Timmer argued, could trigger demand for scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold. Bitcoin’s Friday move effectively closed above the 50-week Moving Average (MA), a level analysts track for bear market endings.
Alex Thorn, Galaxy Research’s Head of Research, commented on the surge, stating, “BTC is looking strong here as it trades over the 50-week moving average. Move looks real.” Trader Bob Loukas echoed a similar view, noting that clearing the May high of $82,000 could push BTC’s price above $90,000.
“Very good setup here for Bitcoin to smash through the May highs and confirm a new bull market,” Loukas said. However, he cautioned that failure to clear $82,000 could open the possibility of retesting lows around $60,000, with the 200-day MA and the short-term holder realized price at $71,000 acting as support. Institutional traders currently see a 35% chance of Bitcoin reclaiming $90,000 by December, while the probability for $100,000 stands at 18%.
