Bitcoin is trading near $76,000 after a sharp decline, with analysts split on whether the recent dip marks a daily cycle bottom or the start of a deeper correction toward $70,000 or lower. One trader points to a bullish divergence and calls for prices above $90,000 by early November, while others warn of further downside. The move follows the Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act, which triggered a large capitulation event among short-term holders.
Bitcoin’s recent price drop has created a divide among market analysts, with some viewing the current level as a potential bottom and others forecasting additional losses. Trader Matthew Hyland stated on X that bears are getting excited right at what he considers a daily cycle low, with a bullish divergence setup forming underneath the price action. “See ya at $90k+ by early November,” he wrote.
Hyland acknowledged that the Relative Strength Index could fall further but pointed to liquidity around $75,000. “So far it was just a liquidity grab IMO,” he stated, adding that there was “not really much liquidity below” that level. He said current prices look solid to him, even as most bears remain unconvinced.
Countering that view, analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin has lost its 50-week EMA and wrote that “a drop to $70K-$72K zone is highly likely before any reversal.” Market watcher Crypto Patel has been calling the bearish move since Bitcoin fell from $82,500 to about $74,900 after being rejected near an $83,000 bearish order block. He is holding a $50,000 target unless Bitcoin closes above $83,000 on a higher timeframe.
A different perspective comes from CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech, who focused on Bitcoin holdings rather than price structure. Data shows the 6- to 12-month supply band has climbed to 30.8% of realized cap, up from 16.2% in December last year, a pattern that lined up with the last three Bitcoin bottoms. The analyst called it a bullish setup but stopped short of calling it the cycle low outright, noting that Bitcoin is still down nearly 40% from its peak and that “this reads as mid-cycle floor building, not the cycle low.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading near $76,000, down about 1.5% in 24 hours and nearly 5% over the past week, though it remains up close to 19% across 30 days. The drop follows Tuesday’s Senate vote, when cloture on the CLARITY Act failed to gather the 60 votes needed to move the bill forward. In the aftermath, Bitcoin short-term holders sent more than 23,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss, worth close to $1.8 billion, marking the largest capitulation event in about a month.
