Bitcoin reclaimed the $78,000 level amid broader market optimism, yet derivatives markets show skepticism. Options traders price only a 25% chance of BTC reaching $84,000 by May’s end, while futures metrics reflect weakness. This cautious sentiment contrasts with strong institutional demand, as spot Bitcoin ETFs and listed companies like MicroStrategy continue significant accumulation, absorbing potential sell pressure.
Bitcoin price climbed back to $78,000 as the S&P 500 Index reached an all-time high. Despite a 15% gain over the past month, derivatives markets remain skeptical of further near-term gains.
Options markets are pricing in 25% odds that Bitcoin will trade above $84,000 by May 29. Put options have consistently traded at a premium, indicating heightened demand for downside price protection as data shows the 30-day delta skew has remained above the neutral threshold for a month. Similarly, the Bitcoin monthly futures basis rate has displayed weakness, suggesting a lack of demand for bullish leveraged positions.
In contrast, institutional spot demand remains solid. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $1.3 billion in net inflows during March and another $2 billion in April, driving total net assets above $100 billion. Listed companies have also added massive Bitcoin positions to their reserves over the last 30 days.
These companies include MicroStrategy with 56,235 BTC, Metaplanet with 5,075 BTC, and Strive with 929 BTC. By acquiring more than the equivalent of five months of future Bitcoin mining supply, these entities greatly reduce potential sell pressure in the market.
