Bitcoin remained near $76,000 following the failure of the CLARITY Act and a Federal Reserve rate hike, moves that one analyst says confirm a "bad news doesn’t matter phase" characteristic of the end of a bear market. On-chain data shows the share of Bitcoin addresses at a loss has dropped sharply, a pattern that has historically ended bear cycles rather than producing short-term bounces. The asset is currently trading above $71,300 support and below $79,800 resistance, levels that were tested in late 2023.
Bitcoin barely reacted to the CLARITY Act’s failure and a Federal Reserve rate hike, with one analyst stating it is the clearest sign markets are in a "bad news doesn’t matter phase." The share of Bitcoin addresses sitting at a loss has dropped sharply, and on-chain analyst Crypto Dan says moves of that size have historically ended bear markets rather than just producing a short bounce.
Crypto Dan’s argument centers on UTXOs, the individual chunks of BTC in wallets, and how many currently sit below what their holders paid for them. “Looking at previous market cycles, declines of this scale have represented more than just short-term rebounds,” he wrote. “They have shown enough momentum to bring bearish phases to an end and transition the market into a bullish cycle.”
He flagged the rate hike and the CLARITY Act’s failure as near-term risks, but argued that neither had been enough to undo the shift already underway. Darkfost’s read on the chain data lines up with that, showing Bitcoin holding above $71,300, a cost basis that only counts units actively moving through the market.
This level got tested twice near the end of the 2023 bear market before the next cycle took off. On the other side sits $79,800, the break-even point for invested capital, where BTC keeps getting rejected, a pattern also traced back to that same 2023 stretch.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading above $76,000, up about 1% on the day but down nearly 3% for the week. The Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on September 15, falling short of the 60 votes needed, and the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points the next day.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that the rally has little to do with regulation, noting that BTC rose about 38% between July and mid-September even as betting markets cut CLARITY Act odds. Trader Matthew Hyland mocked predictions that the failed vote and rate hike would send Bitcoin to $50,000, while longtime BTC advocate David Bailey called the muted reaction the strongest sign yet that the bear market is over.
