Bitcoin’s valuation against gold recently hit an historic low, signaling what some analysts believe is a major buying opportunity reminiscent of the period before the 2015-2017 bull run. While market data shows long-term holders accumulating Bitcoin during the January sell-off, other analysts caution that a significant rotation of capital from gold to cryptocurrency is not guaranteed and may unfold slowly.
Bitcoin fell to a record low versus gold in January. Analysts say this level has lined up with past major market bottoms, including one in 2015 that preceded an 11,800% price rally.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated “Today represents a better opportunity to be buying Bitcoin than 2017.” This view is shared by Bitwise European head of research André Dragosch and Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal, who suggested such rotations could begin in February or March.
However, analyst Benjamin Cowen disagreed that a rotation is imminent. He argued Bitcoin may continue underperforming the stock market and that hopes for a massive shift from precious metals could be misplaced in the short term.
Gold prices have doubled over the past year, while Bitcoin has declined by 18% over the same period. Financial institutions like Citi and RBC Capital Markets predict continued strength in precious metals, with the latter forecasting gold could reach $7,000 by the end of 2026.
On-chain data shows long-term Bitcoin holders, entities holding for over 155 days, began rebuilding their positions during the January sell-off. The Long-Term Holder Spent Binary, an indicator of selling pressure from this group, continued to decline.
According to analyst Anil, recovering long-term holder supply and a declining spending metric have preceded durable Bitcoin bottoms in past cycles. A similar pattern occurred after the April 2025 lows, which was followed by a roughly 60% price rally a month later.
