Bitcoin has risen more than 13% in July, putting it on track for its strongest monthly return since the 16.8% rally in 2022. The move above $66,000 has strengthened bullish sentiment, with Polymarket pricing a 33% chance of BTC closing July above $70,000. However, the $69,000 level represents a key resistance zone where the Short-Term Holder cost basis sits, potentially triggering profit-taking. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded seven consecutive days of net inflows, bringing in over $700 million in the past week. Continued whale accumulation adds to the bid side. Rising oil prices and treasury yields present macro headwinds that could test Bitcoin’s resilience.
Bitcoin has surged more than 13% in July, on pace for its strongest monthly performance since the 16.8% rally in 2022. The move above $66,000 has boosted market sentiment, with Polymarket now pricing a 33% chance of BTC closing July above $70,000.
The $69,000 level is a key threshold to watch, as it represents the Short-Term Holder cost basis. This average buy price for recent holders has become a significant supply zone, where many could begin taking profits.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged seven straight days of net inflows, bringing in more than $700 million over the past week. According to data from SoSoValue, this steady demand, combined with continued whale accumulation, suggests the bid side may be strong enough to absorb potential profit-taking.
The rally is not driven by technicals alone. Oil has surged more than 25% this month, with Polymarket having given it only a 34% chance of breaking above $90 per barrel by July’s end — the market has already moved past that level, with oil trading around $93 per barrel.
Treasury yields across the 10-year and 30-year maturities have climbed to multi-month highs, with the 30-year yield nearing levels last seen during the lead-up to the Global Financial Crisis. Rising yields make safer assets more attractive, while higher oil prices revive concerns about near-term inflation.
Together, these macro factors create potential headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin. The key question is whether ETF inflows and whale accumulation can withstand rising macro pressure, or whether the next rejection may come from the macro side rather than the charts.
