Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan projects Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million per coin if it captures one-third of the global store-of-value market, estimated at $80 trillion. The model factors in gold, central bank reserves, and savings vehicles, dividing the captured value by Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins, minus lost coins tracked by Glassnode. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed over $50 billion in net inflows since January 2024, while corporate treasuries are diversifying beyond MicroStrategy, as observed by Arkham Intelligence. The forecast arrives amid U.S. debt exceeding $35 trillion and central bank experiments with tokenized reserves, though volatility and regulatory uncertainty remain limiting factors.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has stated that Bitcoin would reach approximately $1.3 million per coin if it captures only a third of the global store-of-value market over the next decade. The model positions Bitcoin as an asset competing with gold, offshore wealth, and reserve holdings.
Hougan’s store-of-value thesis identifies markets composed of gold, central bank reserves, and savings vehicles totaling about $80 trillion. Capturing a third would allocate $26 trillion to Bitcoin, assuming a 33% market share.
Dividing that sum by the fixed supply of 21 million coins, minus those already lost according to Glassnode, yields the $1.3 million figure. Bitwise, creator of the BITB spot Bitcoin ETF, has stated that scarcity leads investors to allocate capital to assets.
The thesis is timely as spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed over $50 billion in net inflows, as reported by SoSoValue, since January 2024. Corporate treasuries observed by Arkham Intelligence are expanding beyond MicroStrategy.
As U.S. debt tops $35 trillion and central banks experiment with tokenized reserves, the market for non-sovereign assets rises. However, volatility, lack of SEC guidance, and the presence of tokenized gold are factors that can limit this trend.
For investors, exchanges, custody institutions, and Layer 2 networks like Lightning and Stacks, such adoption would transform liquidity, custody standards, and fee markets. It would also increase pressure on regulators to classify Bitcoin as a legitimate asset for traditional portfolios.
