Cryptocurrency analysts are debating whether Bitcoin faces a major price decline in May, echoing patterns from prior U.S. midterm election years in 2018 and 2022. Some point to historical crashes, while others argue current market fundamentals, like institutional adoption through spot ETFs, make a severe repeat unlikely. Bitcoin’s price was near $76,900, down over 5% for the week, with a key support level cited at $76,000.
Analysts are split on the potential for a significant Bitcoin sell-off this May, a pattern observed in the last two U.S. midterm election years. In May 2018, Bitcoin fell from nearly $10,000 to around $7,000, and a similar 30% drop occurred in May 2022 from about $40,000 to $28,500. Crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar highlighted this trend, stating “The most brutal pattern in Bitcoin history… Mid-term election years. Bitcoin dumps. Every time.”
Enkelaar suggested a similar move could collapse prices to $33,000 despite positive developments like the CLARITY Act. Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, also said a new capitulation phase is more likely if Bitcoin stays under $78,000. Bitcoin was trading near $76,900 at the time of reporting.
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, acknowledged the historical coincidence but argued specific shocks caused past drawdowns, not the calendar. He cited events like the Mt. Gox aftermath and the Terra/FTX collapses as concrete drivers. Ko noted market structure has changed with spot ETFs and institutional adoption, making a 70-80% crash unlikely.
“The calendar didn’t cause those drawdowns — specific shocks did,” Ko stated. He added that a decline to the mid-$60,000 or high-$50,000 range could occur under a macro shock, but a fall to $33,000 would require a systemic break. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe identified $76,000 as a crucial support level preventing a larger decline.
Van de Poppe said current price action suggests consolidation, not new lows. He cautioned that losing the $76,000 support could trigger a further downward fall toward lower boundaries. The debate centers on whether historical patterns or strengthened fundamentals will dictate Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
