New research from CryptoQuant stated on Friday that Bitcoin risks entering another bear market in 2026 if it fails to reclaim its 365-day moving average. The report says price remains below the yearly trendline near $101,000, and rising exchange inflows suggest selling pressure.
Bitcoin rose about 21% since November 21 from a $80,500 low to roughly $97,900, but the 365-day moving average sits at $101,000 and acts as resistance. “The price of Bitcoin fell by 19% as it confirmed the start of a bear market after crossing below its 365-day moving average (MA). Since then, it has rallied by 19% to as high as $97.9K, approaching its 365-day MA that sits at $101K,” the report said.
The research compares the current move to 2022, when a similar rebound failed at the yearly MA. (Ed. note: analysts view that past rejection as a warning sign for bulls.)
The report also flagged rising exchange inflows as a near-term risk. “Total Bitcoin flowing into exchanges has picked up to a 7-day average of 39K BTC today, the largest inflow volume since November 25, 2025,” it added, noting higher inflows can indicate escalating selling pressure.
