The current Bitcoin market cycle is significantly weaker than the three previous cycles, according to analysis by Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn. Citing data, Thorn noted the October 2025 high was just 97% above the April 2024 halving price, a stark contrast to the massive historical gains. Critics argue this underperformance is skewed by Bitcoin hitting a record high before the 2024 halving.
The current Bitcoin market cycle is dramatically weaker than its predecessors, according to Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy. Thorn compared price action since the April 2024 halving to the cycles triggered in 2012, 2016, and 2020. The all-time high above $125,000 on October 5, 2025 was only 97% above the halving price around $63,000.
During the 2012 halving cycle, BTC’s price increased about 9,294%, reaching a high near $1,163. The 2016 cycle saw an increase of about 2,950% to a high near $19,891, while the 2020 halving produced a gain of about 761%. “Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” Thorn stated in an X post.
The decreasing volatility in each successive cycle suggests traditional market dynamics are changing. Bitcoin’s price may be influenced more by other factors rather than the halving alone, according to the analysis.
The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index spiked to 9.64% in April 2020. In the current cycle, it has not been above 3.11%, a reading last recorded on August 24, 2024. Data shows the latest 30-day estimate for that gauge is 1.75%.
Critics say the current cycle’s performance ignores a historic anomaly. Bitcoin reached an all-time high above the $70,000 level in March 2024, one month before the halving.
The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States in January 2024 was the primary catalyst for that price pump. Critics of Thorn’s analysis said this anomaly skewed the cycle’s price performance.
Bitcoin drawdowns have also become less severe as volatility has declined, according to Fidelity Digital Assets. Previous bear markets saw declines between 80% and 90%, according to Zack Wainwright, a research analyst at the firm.
However, Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 from the high above $125,000 represents a decline just north of 50%. In March, Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management company VanEck, said BTC is close to bottoming out.
Van Eck expects the price to begin gradually rising again in 2026. At last look, the biggest crypto was trading at about $74,703, up almost 5% in the last seven days.
