Polymarket odds tracking the Federal Reserve indicate it is no longer projected to raise interest rates at its September meeting. This shift follows the US recording its third largest monthly job loss since 2020. Despite ongoing high inflation, forecasters now believe the Fed will hold rates steady for a sixth consecutive session. However, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated the Fed is prepared to raise rates in September if inflation comes in higher than expected. Investors now await the July Consumer Price Index report on August 12 for further clarity.
Polymarket odds tracking the Federal Reserve show it is no longer projected to raise interest rates at its September meeting. This change comes shortly after the US recorded its third largest monthly job loss since 2020.
Even as inflation continues to run rampant in the US economy, forecasters now believe the Fed will hold off on moving rates for the sixth consecutive session. Contrary to these forecasts, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said this past week that the Fed is prepared to raise rates in September if inflation comes in higher than expected.
Inflation in the US has been going down over the last few months, falling to 3.5% in June 2026. However, the re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict led to a spike in oil prices last month, as higher oil prices often lead to higher CPI figures.
President Trump’s recent tariff spree may also play a major role in driving up inflation figures. Investors will now be looking to the July inflation picture, set to be revealed in the Consumer Price Index report for the month on August 12.
In June, prices posted their biggest month-over-month fall in six years as energy prices fell. Oil rose in July amid renewed tensions in the Middle East, which could affect the upcoming report.
If the labor market is weakening, that may change how the central bank thinks about rate hikes. Some members of the Fed have called for such hikes amid higher energy prices due to the US-Iran war.
