BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has stated that Bitcoin’s recovery to its October 2025 all-time high of around $126,000 is a “foregone conclusion.” Hayes links the crypto bull market to aggressive government spending on AI infrastructure, military actions, and energy security projects. He argues this spending creates substantial liquidity that will lift Bitcoin’s price, with a potential acceleration once it surpasses $90,000.
Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin could move above $90,000 and revisit its all-time high of around $126,000. He ties this outlook to aggressive spending by governments and banks on AI infrastructure, military spending, and energy security projects.
The core of Hayes’s argument is that Chinese and American governments have political cover to print money aggressively. He believes this flood of liquidity will lift Bitcoin more than almost any other asset.
The first driver is the AI arms race, which Hayes views as a matter of national survival for both the U.S. and China. “The presidents of America and China both believe that AI and tech supremacy are integral to the survival of their fiefdoms,” he stated.
He claims this framing makes central bank pushback on inflationary lending politically impossible. Hayes argues dollars and yuan will flow into AI regardless of consumer price impacts.
The second driver is the U.S. attack on Iran, which Hayes says began the current bull market on February 28. He believes this conflict will lead sovereign nations to spend capital on defense and commodity stockpiles instead of U.S. Treasuries.
Hayes contends this creates a structural problem for U.S. markets, which the Fed and Treasury will patch with looser financial conditions. Each of these tools expands the supply of dollars, which in his framework means higher Bitcoin prices.
Regarding Bitcoin’s price recovery, Hayes wrote, “Retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion.” He expects the surge will accelerate once Bitcoin passes $90,000 due to a potential squeeze on covered call sellers.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading under $81,000, up nearly 13% in the last month. It remains approximately 36% below its October 2025 all-time high.
Investment flows show improving sentiment, with digital asset products recording $857.9 million in inflows last week. Bitcoin alone pulled in $706 million, bringing its year-to-date inflow total to $4.9 billion.
