Hyperliquid’s HYPE token has retreated to around $52, a level analysts argue reflects a more realistic valuation after a flow-driven rally pushed it above fundamentals. The rise was fueled by concentrated buying from Hyperliquid Strategies, which accumulated 11.12 million HYPE, now holding nearly 10% of the circulating supply. However, once that buying stopped, profit-taking followed. The token’s next direction depends on core business metrics, with July revenue dropping to $43 million from $92 million a year earlier.
Blockworks Research analyst Shaunda Devens argued in a recent X post that Hyperliquid’s retreat to around $52 marks a return to a more realistic valuation after a flow-driven rally carried the token well above its fundamentals. HYPE has ranked among the market’s stronger performers this year, still holding a year-to-date gain near 101%.
Devens traced the run-up to concentrated buying by Hyperliquid Strategies [PURR], the digital-asset treasury accumulating 11.12 million HYPE at a pace often above $100 million per week. That accumulation left the treasury holding close to 10% of HYPE’s circulating supply, the largest share held by any digital-asset treasury in crypto.
News of the AQAv2 upgrade added to the momentum since the framework routes the majority of stablecoin reserve-yield revenue back to the protocol to fund HYPE buybacks. Devens named it alongside the treasury flows as the twin drivers of the move above $50.
Because the rally leaned on the treasury bid and momentum traders instead of fundamentals, Devens saw a clear invalidation, “Because the move was largely independent of fundamentals, driven by the DAT bid and momentum traders, with a clear invalidation once that buying stopped, it was fairly clear holders and traders would take profits into these temporarily elevated prices.”
HYPE recently traded largely uncorrelated from the rest of crypto, yet the core business stays heavily tied to on-chain activity. Devens flagged July revenue of $43 million against $92 million in the same month a year earlier as the shift price is now starting to reflect.
CoinGlass Spot data points to more HYPE leaving exchanges than entering them over the past 30 days, near $22.34 million in net outflows. The gap stays narrow, holding short of the decisive accumulation needed to push HYPE higher from here.
