Morgan Stanley raised its bull-case Tesla stock price target to $840 per share, driven by the software revenue potential of the Tesla Semi rather than passenger car sales. Analyst Andrew Percoco increased the target by $20 after reassessing the Semi’s subscription economics, projecting $12,000 to $18,000 monthly per truck from autonomy fees. The base case remains at $400 with an Equal-Weight rating. The bullish scenario assumes 82,000 Semis by 2040, generating $17 billion in annual software revenue and $7.5 billion in incremental EBIT. Shares traded up less than 1%, still below their 200-day moving average, with full self‑driving on passenger vehicles yet to ship.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco raised his bull‑case Tesla stock price target by $20 to $840, citing the Tesla Semi’s software business rather than the passenger car lineup. The base case remained at $400 with an Equal‑Weight rating, making the move more of a scenario shift than a core read.
“Tesla has become a credible emerging competitor in autonomous trucking,” Percoco said. Once full self‑driving is active on the Semi, he estimates Tesla could charge 85 cents to $1 per mile. With a commercial Semi running nearly 18,000 miles monthly, that yields $12,000 to $18,000 in monthly software revenue per truck, compared to roughly $100 for a consumer FSD subscription.
Diesel prices above $6 per gallon add incentive for fleets to switch to electric self‑driving trucks. Percoco projects 82,000 Semis on the road by 2040, a small number relative to Tesla’s car output, but the segment could deliver $17 billion in annual software revenue and $7.5 billion in incremental EBIT, excluding truck sales or Supercharger fees.
Full self‑driving has not shipped for Tesla’s passenger cars, and CEO Elon Musk said the Model 3 and Model Y come first. “Since the total number of units of the Tesla Semi is still low … it makes sense for us to focus our self‑driving efforts on our high‑volume vehicles, so Model 3 and Y,” Musk stated.
Shares traded above their 50‑day moving average and below their 200‑day line after the note, up less than 1% on the day. A related article described Tesla stock as becoming Elon Musk’s AI empire. Morgan Stanley’s forecast is detailed by Andrew Percoco on TipRanks. Future Tesla stock price targets will depend on how quickly Semi autonomy moves from projection to highway reality.
