Bitcoin faces a pivotal week as the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan announce rate decisions. A stronger yen could accelerate the unwinding of carry trades, pressuring stocks and crypto. Markets price an 85% chance of a Fed hike, while the BOJ decision follows. Recent data showed hot payrolls and producer prices, with CPI at 3.4%. Bitcoin slid from $82,400 to under $78,000 after hawkish signals. A Senate vote on the CLARITY Act and political trade threats add uncertainty. ETF flows split: Bitcoin funds saw $462.73 million in outflows last week, while Ether ETFs gained.
Bitcoin heads into a consequential week, with the Federal Reserve announcing its September rate decision Wednesday and the Bank of Japan following two days later. Markets price in roughly an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike, and according to XWIN Japan, the real question is how hawkish both central banks sound.
XWIN Japan laid out a concerning scenario: US yields and the yen rising together. A stronger yen risks accelerating the unwind of yen-funded carry trades, pushing investors to cut risk across stocks and crypto at once.
Brent crude has traded above $100, and the US 10-year yield approached 5%, keeping inflation worries alive. August payrolls came in at 162,000 — triple expectations — and producer prices accelerated to an annual 5.4%. Last week’s CPI print confirmed headline inflation at 3.4%, and Bitcoin reacted, sliding from about $82,400 to under $78,000 since Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
Tuesday brings a Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act requiring 60 votes to advance. Politically, President Donald Trump threatened to stop trading with countries running a US trade deficit if the Fed didn’t cut rates, but markets lean toward a hike — the opposite of his preference.
Spot On Chain’s Hupzy called it “a binary macro catalyst with asymmetric cross-asset risk,” warning a hike pressures non-yielding assets while a political bend raises questions about dollar credibility.
Bitcoin traded near $78,000, up slightly in 24 hours but down about 2.5% over one week, while still gaining approximately 23% in the last 30 days. It remains nearly 39% below its all-time high of more than $126,000 from last October.
Spot Bitcoin ETF funds shed $462.73 million across four trading days last week, their first negative week since mid-August. In contrast, Ethereum ETFs kept gaining, capped by a $216.41 million Friday inflow as the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency touched an eight-month high.
