Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as Federal Reserve chair on Friday, with markets watching for signs of interest rate policy shifts. Prediction markets show diminished odds of a rate cut this year, diverging from former President Donald Trump’s stated hopes. Lawmakers are also urging Trump to nominate a full slate of commissioners for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Kevin Warsh is set to be sworn in as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve on Friday. His confirmation follows repeated public pressure from former President Donald Trump, who threatened to fire previous chair Jerome Powell for not lowering rates.
Prediction market platform Kalshi now offers a 38.2% chance of a rate cut before 2027, a sharp drop from 96% in February. In contrast, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 98.8% probability rates will hold through June.
Trump said in April he would be disappointed if Warsh did not immediately move to cut rates. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for June 16.
At his confirmation hearing, Senator Elizabeth Warren warned confirming Warsh could lead to the Fed “granting special accounts to [the Trump family’s] crypto company.” Warsh disclosed over $100 million in assets, including investments in crypto companies.
Meanwhile, lawmakers await Trump’s nominations for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The CFTC has been led solely by chair Michael Selig since December and has sought exclusive oversight of prediction markets.
The leaders of the House Committee on Agriculture called on Trump to nominate a full panel of CFTC commissioners. They cited urgent regulatory issues, including concerns about rulemaking if crypto market structure legislation becomes law.
