Researchers argue AI-powered humanoid robots remain years from widespread job replacement, despite recent demonstrations in structured tasks like package sorting. A report notes U.S. companies laid off an estimated 49,135 people in 2026 due to AI, but experts emphasize robots still struggle with adaptability, reliability, and cost in dynamic environments. The shift is seen as selective automation of tasks rather than mass human replacement.
Modern artificial intelligence-powered robots are impressive but still years away from replacing humans as they cannot yet adapt to changing conditions. Researchers point to demonstrations like those from Figure, which showcased humanoid robots performing basic tasks such as cleaning a room.
A series of Figure robots working for nine days straight sorting packages sparked conversation about job replacement timelines. Oliver Obst, an associate professor of robotics at the University of New South Wales, told Cointelegraph that repetitive jobs in structured environments are most at risk.
Administrative and document-processing tasks could be replaced by AI, according to Obst. A May report from workforce consulting firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas found U.S. companies laid off an estimated 49,135 people in 2026 due to AI.
Obst said humanoid robots are unlikely to see a mass rollout soon due to efficiency and reliability concerns. “Even in relatively structured settings, they still face problems with reliability, speed, safety, cost, and recovery from unexpected situations,” he stated.
“I would not say we are at the point of mass replacement by humanoid robots. We are much closer to the selective automation of some tasks,” Obst added. In a May video, a human worker managed to sort more packages compared to a team of Figure’s robots that swapped out for recharging.
Figure CEO Brett Adock said it would be the last time “a human will ever win.” Markus Levin, co-founder of decentralized data network XYO, said AI models perform repetitive tasks with greater consistency but robots still require charging and maintenance.
A September report from the International Federation of Robotics found global demand for factory robots has doubled over the last decade. Levin added, “I believe broad human replacement is still likely years away.”
Dr. Francisco Cruz Naranjo, a senior lecturer at the University of New South Wales, said robot efficiency depends heavily on the activity and environment. “Robots are much better at repetitive tasks without the need for constant pauses, as showcased in the Figure livestream,” he explained.
“Humans, in this case, are much better. This is precisely why robots at the moment are highly efficient in controlled environments, such as factories, but they have not yet succeeded widely in home settings,” Naranjo said. He noted replacement risk depends on research advances and societal adaptation.
Naranjo and Obst said a mass rollout could offer benefits like improving work-life balance and addressing dangerous environments. Obst also highlighted potential social consequences, such as lowering the perceived cost of military conflict.
“Hypothetically, if we became very successful at automating almost all work, then society would need to rethink economies that are currently built around individual wages and employment,” Obst concluded.
