SpaceX’s weighting in the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is poised to increase even if its share price remains flat, driven by a massive post-IPO lockup expiration that will nearly triple the company’s public float. The pivotal events are SpaceX earnings on August 4 and a lockup expiration on August 6, freeing close to 1 billion pre-IPO shares. SpaceX floated only about 5% of its shares at the IPO, keeping its QQQ weight low relative to its full valuation. As of July 22, QQQ held 39.7 million SpaceX shares worth $4.57 billion, a 0.98% portfolio weight. Morningstar analyst Zachary Evens noted this could raise the QQQ weight even without a rally, calling it an opportunity for SpaceX to claim a greater share of cap-weighted index funds.
SpaceX’s QQQ weight is set to rise as a wave of post-IPO lockup expirations will nearly triple the company’s public float.
The boost hinges on two dates. SpaceX earnings are due August 4, followed by a lockup expiration on August 6 that frees close to 1 billion pre-IPO shares.
SpaceX floated only about 5% of its shares at the IPO, versus roughly 20% for a typical offering, according to strategist Matthew Kennedy. That thin float is why SpaceX’s QQQ weight has stayed small next to its full valuation.
As of July 22, the Invesco QQQ Trust held 39.7 million SpaceX shares worth $4.57 billion, a 0.98% portfolio weight. Morningstar analyst Zachary Evens said the lockup expiration could raise that weight even without a rally, calling it “an opportunity for SpaceX to claim a greater share of cap-weighted index funds.”
Pre-IPO investors gain the right to sell nearly 1 billion shares on August 6, more than SpaceX sold during its June 12 IPO. Another 455.8 million shares may unlock around August 20, and Morningstar estimates over 6.4 billion shares could reach the market.
Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens warned that investors will likely sell most of the newly freed shares, stating “most of the available shares will come to market.” If the float triples, the float-adjusted market cap behind this boost could reach roughly $675 billion.
SpaceX earnings are due August 4, with analysts expecting revenue near $6.9 billion and a per-share loss around $0.22 to $0.28. Management will likely face questions on the scrubbed Starship Flight 13 launch and a shift away from Falcon 9 bookings.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an “Overweight” rating and a $300 price target, arguing SpaceX is “uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI.” SPCX shares closed at $115.07 on Thursday, down 26% over the past month.
